Red Sea/Suez Canal shipping: partial recovery, still fragile (August 2026)

Impact

Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd's Gemini Cooperation made a second attempt (July 6, 2026) to resume Suez Canal transit on their Asia–Mediterranean–Turkey service, after a first February 2026 attempt was suspended following US-Iran hostilities. Industry data through August 20, 2026 shows a real but partial recovery: nearly 1,090 Suez Canal transits over the prior four weeks, the highest since January 2024, still 41% below pre-crisis levels. Maersk reports over 30% of Asia-Europe volume previously diverted around the Cape of Good Hope has returned to Suez, and MSC has increased Bab el Mandeb crossings. Security risk remains elevated, however — Lloyd's List Intelligence's August 20, 2026 brief documents a recent cargo vessel declared a constructive total loss and hijackings in the Gulf of Aden, and states weekly fluctuations are still too significant for a definitive stability call. Crude tanker operators continue to avoid Saudi Red Sea port calls even as container lines return.

What Shippers Should Do

Do not assume Suez routing is now permanent or guaranteed — the carriers themselves have said they may adjust individual sailings or shift broadly back to Cape of Good Hope if conditions worsen, which already happened once in 2026. For time-sensitive Europe-bound cargo, confirm current routing with your forwarder and build in buffer days before locking in delivery commitments, since both Suez and Cape of Good Hope routings are actively in use across the industry right now.